The RSS chief, Shri Mohanji Bhagwat, expressed concern about the declining population of India in a public program in Nagpur on December 1. He further appealed that the current fertility rate in the country has come down to 2.1, which will cause immense harm to the society due to the decrease in population. Considering the social status of Shri Bhagwat in the country, his statement is of immense importance. It is natural to get reactions to the concerns he has expressed, and such reactions have been received.

It will be necessary to understand the reality behind Shri Bhagwat’s statement scientifically. Research has been done all over the world on demography in the last two hundred years and there is a general consensus on one figure, which is that if 2.1 children are born per woman, that is, if the fertility rate is 2.1, the population of that country remains stable without increasing. If the fertility rate is more than 2.1 per woman, the population continues to increase, and if it is less than that, the population decreases over time. Therefore, there is truth in Shri Bhagwat’s statement that if less than 2.1 children are born per woman, the population will start decreasing over time. Of course, this is not just a theory, but its reality is now starting to be seen all over the world. The fertility rate of Macau, South Korea, Hong Kong, Puerto Rico, Taiwan, etc. is less than 1.0. Out of 209 countries for which fertility rate data is available, the fertility rate of 114 countries has decreased to less than 2.1, and the average fertility rate of the entire world is 2.2, i.e., the population has almost reached a plateau. From this, a clear conclusion is drawn that it is an undeniable fact that the fertility rate is definitely decreasing in terms of population growth. Shri Bhagwat’s prediction that India’s current fertility rate of 2.1 will not increase over time is definitely true. But there is another side to it, which is also important. Looking at the future of the country only through the prism of declining fertility rate will not be right. This matter also needs to be discussed and analyzed thoroughly on the basis of scientific and statistical science.

Since the evolution of man about three lakh years ago, when he lived in forests or caves, his number has increased and his global population has reached about one to fifteen lakhs. But when he started farming about ten to twelve thousand years ago, there was a huge upheaval and the number of humans suddenly increased and around the year 1800, the global population reached 100 crores. In other words, it took about three lakh years for the global population of humans to reach 100 crores, however, in the last 220 years alone, it has increased eightfold and now it has reached 805 crores and is still increasing. According to the United Nations, by the year 2086, after this population reaches 10.4 billions, its growth will stop and then the population will start to decline and in the year 2100, it will again come down to 10.3 billions and this process of population decline will continue. There are many opinions about how this population decline will be. Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, in their book ‘Empty Planet’, have expressed their doubts in the title of their book whether this planet will become uninhabited. Of course, although different figures are given by different organizations or researchers in this regard, one fact is now clear, which is that the world’s population will definitely start declining by the end of the next century, rather than increasing permanently, and it has actually started in 114 out of the two hundred and nine countries of the world.

There is no consensus on the ideal population of the entire world or each country. But one fact is that the extent to which humans have used the resources of this planet in an uncontrolled and sometimes reckless or unwise manner over the past 250 years has created a man-made threat to this planet by permanently changing the climate. Therefore, the biggest problem facing the world is whether the very existence of humans will be in danger. The root causes of this problem are the excessive and excessive misuse of technology, a wrong economy and a huge population. If we consider this planet, the uncontrolled increase in the number of humans is neither in the interest of the planet nor of humans. Therefore, if the number of humans is decreasing naturally and the balance in nature is being restored, then there should be no objection to considering it as a positive thing. 

If we consider India, the population will continue to grow for the next five decades, reaching 1.7 billion from the current 142 crore, then stabilizing and then decreasing. Therefore, the situation is not the same as the problem of population decline that Shri Bhagwat has expressed, but considering the current fertility rate, another 30 crore people will be added to the population in the next fifty years. Therefore, it is a fact that India will remain the country with the ‘most populous’ population in the world until the year 2100 or even beyond, and we should also consider how appropriate it is to give the title of ‘most populous’ or ‘number one population’ in the world.

In the above context, according to the idea that Shri Bhagwat has put forward that couples should have two to three children, if couples decide to accept his advice, then it is difficult to estimate how much additional population can increase, but it is equally true that the population increase will definitely be more than 30 crore.

It will also be necessary to consider whether this population increase is suitable for India or not. If we look at the global statistics, India’s situation seems contradictory. While we dream of becoming a global superpower, the reality before us is harsh. India’s comparative statistical position in the world is very weak and has always been a challenge to our economic aspirations. 

Let us study the global situation and understand how India stands compared to other rich countries.

Compared to the major countries of the world, India’s position is as follows: 

– Area: Only 2% of the world’s total land area 

– Population: 17.78% of the world’s total population 

– GDP: Only 3.53% of the world’s total GDP 

– Per capita income: Only ₹2.28 lakh (about $2,750) 

In contrast, the figures of a superpower like the United States are: 

– Area: 6.1%

– Population: 4.23% 

– GDP: 26.51% of the world’s total GDP 

– Per capita income: ₹73.17 lakh (about $88,000) 

These figures make it clear that there is a huge gap between India and the United States. Despite India’s population being almost four times that of the United States, its economy is only one-seventh that of the United States. Moreover, the per capita income is very low compared to the United States. To become a global superpower like the US, given its population and per capita income, India would have to grow its current economy of $3.89 trillion to $122 trillion. That is five times the size of the current US economy, and more than the current world GDP ($110 trillion)! While this growth is theoretically possible, it is practically impossible. The most important problem is the unbridled expansion of our population, which is putting a huge strain on our resources. In my opinion, the biggest obstacle in India’s economic math is its huge population! Our economy cannot grow fast enough to keep up with the growth of our population. This results in a very low per capita income. China has largely curbed this problem by implementing strict population control policies. However, in India, population control measures have not been very effective due to political and social reasons. We are seeing the results—crowded cities, crumbling infrastructure, and limited economic growth. This necessitates accepting the reality of the limitations of available resources and land. India is home to 17.78% of the world’s population on 2% of its land area. This disparity is leading to overuse of resources—land degradation, water scarcity, and pressure on arable land. Countries like the United States are blessed with abundant land and natural resources. In contrast, India has to grow within its limited resources. This affects its productivity and limits its ability to create wealth. 

To become a global superpower, India must prioritize population control, efficient use of resources, and growth areas. Political will, social support, and international cooperation will be key factors in this journey. 

We must face the reality that with only 2% of the land area, 17.78% of the population, and 3.53% of the GDP—we must always be aware of these harsh realities. If this math is to change, India can adopt economic restructuring and progressive policies while simultaneously controlling population, or at least supporting population control without interfering with the fertility rate that is currently declining, if it is self-regulating. Only by striving on this path can India take a step forward to become an economic superpower, where wealth and equality are balanced.

-Mahesh Zagade, IAS(rtd)